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Description

In March 2018, the United States imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, aiming to strengthen domestic production. While the policy targeted upstream industries, it raised many important questions such as: how do higher input costs affect employment in downstream industries that rely on these materials? This study examines the relationship between tariff exposure and employment growth using national industry-level data. The sectors chosen for this study were inspired from Nevada's unique economic structure. Nevada’s economy ( primary: services, mining, and a small but growing manufacturing sector) provides a good framework for understanding how industries with different inputs respond to shocks. This study estimates how an industry’s exposure to steel and aluminum input costs affects employment growth between December 2017 and December 2019 using an OLS model. The cost exposure measures are constructed from Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output tables, and the employment data comes from the Current Employment Statistics survey. The results show that higher tariff exposure is associated with slower employment growth. In the main model, a one percentage point increase in input cost exposure is associated with a 0.298 percentage point decline in employment growth. This relationship is present even across multiple models. Additionally, slight employment declines appear even in less directly exposed sectors, suggesting supply chain spillovers. These findings indicate that tariff propagation can hit every part of the economy, creating broader employment effects and can pose challenges for states pursuing economic diversification.

Publisher Location

Las Vegas (Nev.)

Publication Date

Spring 4-17-2026

Publisher

University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Language

English

Keywords

Section 232 Tariffs; Economic Development; International Economics; Manufacturing; Nevada

Disciplines

Business | International Trade Law | Natural Resource Economics

File Format

PDF

File Size

130 KB

Comments

Mentor: Jeffrey Waddoups

Rights

IN COPYRIGHT. For more information about this rights statement, please visit http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Tariff Exposure in the U.S. National Sector: An Input-output Analysis of 2018-2019 Tariffs an Input-output Analysis of 2018-2019 Tariffs


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