Document Type

Capstone Project

Publication Date

5-21-2026

Publication Title

UNLV Undergraduate Economics Working Paper Series

Publisher

University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Publisher Location

Las Vegas (Nev.)

Volume

3

Issue

2

First page number:

1

Last page number:

11

Abstract

This study investigates the internal and macroeconomic determinants of commercial banking failures in the United States spanning 1959 to 2025. Using a logit model and a four-quarter lag, two models are estimated: a comprehensive model (1985–2025) and an extended panel model (1960–2025). Empirical results reveal internal CAMELS metrics are primary determinants of survival; profitability and capital adequacy defends against failures, while asset quality deterioration and management inefficiencies accelerates failure. The “too big to fail” paradigm is empirically validated. Contractionary monetary policy and labor market stress increase failure probabilities. Real GDP growth exhibits a role shift predicting commercial bank failures.

Keywords

Bank failure; commercial bank; logistic regression model; logit model; CAMELS; macroeconomic conditions

Disciplines

Finance and Financial Management | Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods | Portfolio and Security Analysis

File Format

PDF

File Size

364 KB

Language

English

Rights

IN COPYRIGHT. For more information about this rights statement, please visit http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

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