From Influence to Illegality: A Open-Source Timeline of Russian Influence, Regulatory Capture, and Wartime Disruption in Ukraine’s Gambling Market

Session Title

Poster session

Presentation Type

Poster Presentation

Start Date

27-5-2026 12:00 AM

Abstract

Ukraine's gambling sector offers a rare, high-visibility case study in how a newly regulated gambling market can become a national security liability during geopolitical conflict. This poster provides an open-source, event based timeline that traces the evolution of Ukraine's gambling ecosystem from its early ban, to gray-market persistence and reform debates, through legalization and regulatory vulnerability, to wartime disruption characterized by sanctions, early restrictions, and intensified enforcement. Using a structured OSINT approach, we compile and triangulate events from Ukranian laws and decrees, National Security and Defense decisions, central bank and financial enforcement actions, public sanctions lists, and investigative reporting on ownership, payment routing, and platform infrastructure. Events are organized into six broad categories, 1) market or legal framework changes, 2) regulator formation and integrity signals, 3) Russian-linked influence vectors, 4) wartime risk identification, 5) emergency government actions, and 6) mass enforcement outcomes. Where attribution is contested, the timeline applies conservative evidentiary rules (e.g. corroboration across multiple independent sources) and focuses on system-level vulnerabilities. This poster intends to use Ukraine as a comparative regulatory case showing how influence operations, hybrid warefare, and gray-market systems can be weilded as soft power and disrupt regulatory systems.

Author Bios

Mark Lucia, MBA, MPH, is the Director of Programming at Kindbridge Research Institute. He designs initiatives that bridge military service and academic practice, most recently helping translate research into access-first care through efforts like Stigma Stand Down. Mark’s background spans optimizing multimillion-dollar operations at Amazon and leading medical logistics and support on NATO missions in Army Special Forces. With dual master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins, he brings a rare blend of st

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May 27th, 12:00 AM

From Influence to Illegality: A Open-Source Timeline of Russian Influence, Regulatory Capture, and Wartime Disruption in Ukraine’s Gambling Market

Ukraine's gambling sector offers a rare, high-visibility case study in how a newly regulated gambling market can become a national security liability during geopolitical conflict. This poster provides an open-source, event based timeline that traces the evolution of Ukraine's gambling ecosystem from its early ban, to gray-market persistence and reform debates, through legalization and regulatory vulnerability, to wartime disruption characterized by sanctions, early restrictions, and intensified enforcement. Using a structured OSINT approach, we compile and triangulate events from Ukranian laws and decrees, National Security and Defense decisions, central bank and financial enforcement actions, public sanctions lists, and investigative reporting on ownership, payment routing, and platform infrastructure. Events are organized into six broad categories, 1) market or legal framework changes, 2) regulator formation and integrity signals, 3) Russian-linked influence vectors, 4) wartime risk identification, 5) emergency government actions, and 6) mass enforcement outcomes. Where attribution is contested, the timeline applies conservative evidentiary rules (e.g. corroboration across multiple independent sources) and focuses on system-level vulnerabilities. This poster intends to use Ukraine as a comparative regulatory case showing how influence operations, hybrid warefare, and gray-market systems can be weilded as soft power and disrupt regulatory systems.