Cross-Sport Substitution Effects on NBA Betting Volume: Evidence from the 2024–2025 Regular Season

Session Title

Gambling Behavior: Language, Finance & Digital

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation

Start Date

28-5-2026 12:00 AM

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of betting volume for individual National Basketball Association (NBA) games during the 2024–2025 regular season. Using betting volume data sourced from ActionNetwork.com, we employ linear regression models to assess the impact of concurrent live games from competing major sports leagues—National Football League (NFL), National Hockey League (NHL), and Major League Baseball (MLB)—on the same day. Models use the natural logarithm of betting volume as the dependent variable, with key independent variables capturing the presence of overlapping games from other leagues, alongside controls for NBA game-specific factors, including point spread, posted total, television network and start time. Findings indicate significant substitution effects: betting activity on NBA games declines when live events from competing leagues occur simultaneously, suggesting bettors reallocate wagers and attention across sports. Moreover, NBA game betting volume increases with larger posted point spreads and especially higher over/under totals, reflecting greater interest in matchups with perceived high scoring potential and greater uncertainty. These results highlight inter-league competition in legal sports betting markets and offer insights for sportsbook operators, NBA scheduling decisions, and responsible gambling initiatives in a time of expanding wagering access.

Author Bios

Andrew Weinbach, PhD, Professor of Economics at Coastal Carolina Univ., specializes in sports betting markets and applied microeconomics. He has over 50 peer-reviewed publications on sports betting markets in journals like Journal of Sports Economics and International Journal of Sport Finance. His research examines betting odds as predictors of fan interest (e.g., TV ratings, attendance), bettor biases, market inefficiencies, cross-sport substitution effects, and behavioral patterns in wagering.

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May 28th, 12:00 AM

Cross-Sport Substitution Effects on NBA Betting Volume: Evidence from the 2024–2025 Regular Season

This study investigates the determinants of betting volume for individual National Basketball Association (NBA) games during the 2024–2025 regular season. Using betting volume data sourced from ActionNetwork.com, we employ linear regression models to assess the impact of concurrent live games from competing major sports leagues—National Football League (NFL), National Hockey League (NHL), and Major League Baseball (MLB)—on the same day. Models use the natural logarithm of betting volume as the dependent variable, with key independent variables capturing the presence of overlapping games from other leagues, alongside controls for NBA game-specific factors, including point spread, posted total, television network and start time. Findings indicate significant substitution effects: betting activity on NBA games declines when live events from competing leagues occur simultaneously, suggesting bettors reallocate wagers and attention across sports. Moreover, NBA game betting volume increases with larger posted point spreads and especially higher over/under totals, reflecting greater interest in matchups with perceived high scoring potential and greater uncertainty. These results highlight inter-league competition in legal sports betting markets and offer insights for sportsbook operators, NBA scheduling decisions, and responsible gambling initiatives in a time of expanding wagering access.