Beat the Sportsbook: The Theory and Practice of Successful Sports Betting

Session Title

Sports Betting: Strategy & Investment

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation

Start Date

28-5-2026 12:00 AM

Abstract

Sports betting is a major sector of American Gaming economy. In 2024, Americans wagered almost $150 billion dollars in legal online and brick and mortar sportsbooks, resulting in record industry revenue of $13.7 billion. Moreover, sports betting holds a particular importance for gaming operators as it attracts younger and more affluent consumers, most of whom would be unlikely to participate in other casino games, such as slot machines. Some purists claim that betting on sports jeopardizes the integrity of competition; however that argument does not pass the test of time. As a matter of fact, historians have found that when sports emerged gambling did too. Separating the two may be impossible. Also, in many ways having sports betting operate in a regulated transparent market is superior to illegal betting and opaque rules. Despite the popularity of sports betting, public consensus holds that it is nearly impossible for bettors to overcome the vig (fee sportsbooks charge for booking a bet) and make money in the long run. While other forms of risk taking, such as investing in high-risk growth stocks, high-yield bonds, and cryptocurrencies, are viewed as daring risk taking, sports betting still has a negative social stigma. In this research we explore quantitative and qualitative strategies that allow sports bettors to overcome the inherent odds disadvantages and realize both the theoretical (expected value) and practical (actual results) positive returns on their sports wagers.

Author Bios

Robert H. Scott, III, Ph.D., is Professor and Greenbaum/Ferguson/NJAR Endowed Chair in Real Estate Policy at Monmouth University. He is an applied econometrician that focuses on real estate, gaming, risk management, consumer debt, and financial literacy.

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May 28th, 12:00 AM

Beat the Sportsbook: The Theory and Practice of Successful Sports Betting

Sports betting is a major sector of American Gaming economy. In 2024, Americans wagered almost $150 billion dollars in legal online and brick and mortar sportsbooks, resulting in record industry revenue of $13.7 billion. Moreover, sports betting holds a particular importance for gaming operators as it attracts younger and more affluent consumers, most of whom would be unlikely to participate in other casino games, such as slot machines. Some purists claim that betting on sports jeopardizes the integrity of competition; however that argument does not pass the test of time. As a matter of fact, historians have found that when sports emerged gambling did too. Separating the two may be impossible. Also, in many ways having sports betting operate in a regulated transparent market is superior to illegal betting and opaque rules. Despite the popularity of sports betting, public consensus holds that it is nearly impossible for bettors to overcome the vig (fee sportsbooks charge for booking a bet) and make money in the long run. While other forms of risk taking, such as investing in high-risk growth stocks, high-yield bonds, and cryptocurrencies, are viewed as daring risk taking, sports betting still has a negative social stigma. In this research we explore quantitative and qualitative strategies that allow sports bettors to overcome the inherent odds disadvantages and realize both the theoretical (expected value) and practical (actual results) positive returns on their sports wagers.