Award Date

5-15-2026

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Geoscience

First Committee Member

Hannes Bauser

Second Committee Member

Michael Nicholl

Third Committee Member

Deena Hannoun

Fourth Committee Member

Monika Neda

Number of Pages

74

Abstract

Elevated water temperatures can pose a significant threat to dam infrastructure, potentially damaging turbines, overheating internal components, and forcing generator shutdowns. This study uses a backcasting framework to evaluate how future scenarios may result in elevated water temperatures. Backcasting defines undesirable outcomes and works backward to identify the conditions that lead to them. The developed backcasting framework integrates 3D physics-based simulations with a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM)surrogate model and SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpretation. The combination captures temporal water temperature dynamics and quantifies the contributions of different drivers to elevated water temperature releases. As proof of concept, these methods are applied to intake structures at Hoover Dam that supply water to power-generating units. The results show that increased water temperatures going through the intakes are mainly driven by low lake elevation, high air temperature, high solar radiation, high inflow temperature, and high Schmidt Stability Index. Together, the identified drivers suggest that a combination of external climate forcing, upstream river conditions, and lake mixing dynamics drive elevated water temperatures when water is withdrawn from a reservoir. This study serves as a case study for Lake Mead and Hoover Dam, illustrating how the methods can be applied to assess water quality around critical infrastructure under changing environmental conditions.

Keywords

AEM3D; Drought; Management; Modeling; Reservoir; Water quality

Disciplines

Applied Mathematics | Hydrology | Water Resource Management

File Format

PDF

File Size

2400 KB

Degree Grantor

University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Language

English

Rights

IN COPYRIGHT. For more information about this rights statement, please visit http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

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