Prediction Markets, by the Numbers: Scale, Growth, and Risk

Session Title

Youth Gambling: Risk Factors & Vulnerability

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation

Start Date

28-5-2026 12:00 AM

Abstract

This presentation provides an overview of prediction markets by the numbers, shifting the conversation from abstract discussion to empirical evidence. It focuses on three areas. First, it examines overall prediction market activity, measured by monthly and cumulative contract value, transaction volume, and growth rates over time. It also analyzes the distribution of prediction market activity across outcome categories (e.g., politics, sports, and entertainment). Second, the presentation disaggregates activity to the user level, including estimates of total unique users, user acquisition rates, average wager size, and the proportion of accounts with positive or negative balances. It further explores participant demographics (including gender, age, and race), behaviors (including engagement in other gambling activities), and attitudes (such as gambling-related misconceptions and perceived harms). Third, it examines gambling disorder risk as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), comparing individuals who engage in prediction markets with those who do not, and identifies additional risk factors such as frequency of gambling activities and substance use.

Author Bios

Glenn Yamagata is the Executive Director of the Oregon Council on Problem Gambling and serves on the Board of Directors of the National Council on Problem Gambling. He is also Vice President and Senior Consultant at Problem Gambling Solutions, Inc. Glenn is a former consultant with McKinsey & Company and holds an M.Phil. in Economics and an M.A. in Statistics from Yale University.

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May 28th, 12:00 AM

Prediction Markets, by the Numbers: Scale, Growth, and Risk

This presentation provides an overview of prediction markets by the numbers, shifting the conversation from abstract discussion to empirical evidence. It focuses on three areas. First, it examines overall prediction market activity, measured by monthly and cumulative contract value, transaction volume, and growth rates over time. It also analyzes the distribution of prediction market activity across outcome categories (e.g., politics, sports, and entertainment). Second, the presentation disaggregates activity to the user level, including estimates of total unique users, user acquisition rates, average wager size, and the proportion of accounts with positive or negative balances. It further explores participant demographics (including gender, age, and race), behaviors (including engagement in other gambling activities), and attitudes (such as gambling-related misconceptions and perceived harms). Third, it examines gambling disorder risk as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), comparing individuals who engage in prediction markets with those who do not, and identifies additional risk factors such as frequency of gambling activities and substance use.